How Exposure Is Detected
QuantumTrace queries the blockchain's public transaction history for your wallet address using the relevant block explorer API (Etherscan for Ethereum, Blockchain.info for Bitcoin, Solana RPC for Solana, XRPL cluster for XRP). It filters for outgoing transactions — transactions where your address is the sender. The presence of any outgoing transaction confirms that your public key has been revealed on-chain via your ECDSA or Ed25519 signature. For Solana, the address itself is the public key, so any on-chain activity constitutes exposure. For XRP, the account Sequence number directly indicates the count of outgoing transactions.
How the Risk Score Is Calculated
The risk score is a weighted composite from 0 to 100, composed of four components. Maximum score is 100.
1. EXPOSURE SCORE (0–50 POINTS)
Graduated based on the number of outgoing transactions — each transaction re-exposes your public key signature on-chain.
| OUTGOING TXS | POINTS |
|---|---|
| 0 transactions | 0 points |
| 1–2 transactions | 30 points |
| 3–10 transactions | 40 points |
| 11–50 transactions | 45 points |
| Over 50 transactions | 50 points |
2. YEARS EXPOSED (0–30 POINTS)
6 points per full year since the first outgoing transaction, capped at 5 years (maximum 30 points). Calculated using the relativedelta between the first outgoing transaction timestamp and the current date.
3. VALUE SCORE (0–10 POINTS)
Based on the wallet's current USD value, calculated as (token balance) × (CoinGecko USD price at time of scan).
| USD VALUE | POINTS |
|---|---|
| Under $500 | 0 points |
| $500 – $5,000 | 3 points |
| $5,000 – $25,000 | 5 points |
| $25,000 – $100,000 | 7 points |
| Over $100,000 | 10 points |
4. TRANSACTION COUNT SCORE (0–10 POINTS)
Higher transaction counts increase the statistical surface area for cryptanalytic attack.
| OUTGOING TXS | POINTS |
|---|---|
| 0–5 transactions | 0 points |
| 6–50 transactions | 4 points |
| 51–200 transactions | 7 points |
| Over 200 transactions | 10 points |
UNEXPOSED WALLETS
Wallets with zero outgoing transactions receive only a residual balance risk score (maximum 20 points) based on USD value: 5 for under $5,000; 8 for $5,000–$25,000; 14 for $25,000–$100,000; 20 for over $100,000. No exposure, years, or transaction count components apply.
Chain-Specific Vulnerability Notes
Different blockchains use different signature algorithms, and these algorithms have different quantum vulnerability profiles.
ETH / BTC / XRP — ECDSA (secp256k1)
Ethereum, Bitcoin, and XRP Ledger all use ECDSA signatures based on the secp256k1 elliptic curve. This algorithm is vulnerable to Shor's algorithm, which provides an exponential quantum speedup for solving the discrete logarithm problem. Once a sufficiently powerful quantum computer (CRQC) exists, exposed ECDSA public keys can be reversed to private keys in minutes. This is the most severe quantum vulnerability class in blockchain cryptography.
SOL — Ed25519
Solana uses Ed25519 signatures (Edwards-curve Digital Signature Algorithm). Ed25519 is vulnerable to Grover's algorithm, which provides a quadratic quantum speedup — effectively halving the security bits. For a 128-bit key, this reduces effective security to ~64 bits, which is attackable but significantly less efficient than Shor's exponential attack on ECDSA. The quantum risk for Solana is real but arrives later than for ECDSA-based chains. Migration to post-quantum signatures is still recommended.
Note: QuantumTrace does not reduce the Solana risk score automatically. The same graduated scoring formula applies across all chains. The Ed25519 distinction is presented as contextual information for security-literate users to factor into their own threat models.
Risk Level Classification
| SCORE RANGE | LEVEL |
|---|---|
| 0–30 | LOW |
| 31–60 | MODERATE |
| 61–100 | CRITICAL |
Data Sources
- Ethereum data: Etherscan V2 API (etherscan.io) — transaction history, ETH balance
- Bitcoin data: Blockchain.info rawaddr API (blockchain.info) — transaction history, BTC balance in satoshis
- Solana data: Solana Public RPC (api.mainnet-beta.solana.com) — account info, transaction signatures, SOL balance in lamports
- XRP data: XRPL Public Cluster (xrplcluster.com) — account info, account transactions, XRP balance in drops
- Price data: CoinGecko API (coingecko.com) — real-time USD prices for ETH, BTC, SOL, and XRP, fetched on every scan
QuantumTrace is read-only. It never requests wallet connection, private keys, or seed phrases. All data comes from public blockchain records. No AI models are used — the entire scoring pipeline is deterministic.
Homepage Statistics Sources
- $2.4T BTC at risk: Based on Deloitte's 2024 report estimating approximately 25% of all Bitcoin resides in quantum-vulnerable addresses with exposed public keys.
- ~2029 CRQC timeline: Projected timeline from the Global Risk Institute's 2024 Quantum Threat Timeline Report and Google Quantum AI's March 2026 responsible-disclosure paper.
- 9 MIN key crack time: Based on theoretical CRQC estimates from the Quantum Threat Timeline Report (IQSD, 2024) and academic projections for Shor's algorithm on secp256k1 with approximately 4,000 logical qubits.
- 65%+ RWAs on ETH: Based on RWA.xyz 2024 market data showing Ethereum hosts over 65% of all tokenized real-world assets by value across public blockchains.